The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. I: Mean response and interannual variability

The impact of doubled CO2 concentration on the Asian summer monsoon is studied using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Both the mean seasonal precipitation and interannual monsoon variability are found to increase in the future climate scenario presented. Systematic biases in current climate simulations of the coupled system prevent accurate representation of the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection, of prime importance for seasonal prediction and for determining monsoon interannual variability. By applying seasonally varying heat flux adjustments to the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean surface in the future climate simulation, some assessment can be made of the impact of systematic model biases on future climate predictions. In simulations where the flux adjustments are implemented, the response to climate change is magnified, with the suggestion that systematic biases may be masking the true impact of increased greenhouse gas forcing. The teleconnection between ENSO and the Asian summer monsoon remains robust in the future climate, although the Indo-Pacific takes on more of a biennial character for long periods of the flux-adjusted simulation. Assessing the teleconnection across interdecadal timescales shows wide variations in its amplitude, despite the absence of external forcing. This suggests that recent changes in the observed record cannot be distinguished from internal variations and as such are not necessarily related to climate change

The spatial-temporal patterns of Asian summer monsoon precipitation in response to Holocene insolation change: a model-data synthesis

Highlights: • Slice and transient simulations of Holocene climate change were performed. • Spatial–temporal patterns of Holocene Asian summer precipitation are investigated. • A tripole pattern of summer precipitation can be seen over monsoonal Asia. • Insolation change is a key factor for Holocene Asian summer monsoon change. • Internal feedbacks are important to Holocene Asian summer precipitation changes. Abstract: Paleoclimate proxy records of precipitation/effective moisture show spatial–temporal inhomogeneous over Asian monsoon and monsoon marginal regions during the Holocene. To investigate the spatial differences and diverging temporal evolution over monsoonal Asia and monsoon marginal regions, we conduct a series of numerical experiments with an atmosphere–ocean–sea ice coupled climate model, the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), for the period of Holocene from 9.5 ka BP to present (0 ka BP). The simulations include two time-slice equilibrium experiments for early Holocene (9.5 ka BP) and present-day (0 ka BP), respectively and one transient simulation (HT) using a scheme for model acceleration regarding to the Earth's orbitally driven insolation forcing for the whole period of Holocene (from 9.5 to 0 ka BP). The simulated summer precipitation in the equilibrium experiments shows a tripole pattern over monsoonal Asia as depicted by the first modes of empirical orthogonal function (EOF1) of H0K and H9K. The transient simulation HT exhibits a wave train pattern in the summer precipitation across the Asian monsoon region associated with a gradually decreased trend in the strength of Asian summer monsoon, as a result of the response of Asian summer monsoon system to the Holocene orbitally-forced insolation change. Both the synthesis of multi-proxy records and model experiments confirm the regional dissimilarity of the Holocene optimum precipitation/effective moisture over the East Asian summer monsoon region, monsoon marginal region, and the westerly-dominated areas, suggesting the complex response of the regional climate systems to Holocene insolation change in association with the internal feedbacks within climate system, such as the air-sea interactions associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the evolution of Asian summer monsoon during the Holocene

The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. II: Changing ENSO regimes

Integrations of a fully-coupled climate model with and without flux adjustments in the equatorial oceans are performed under 2×CO2 conditions to explore in more detail the impact of increased greenhouse gas forcing on the monsoon-ENSO system. When flux adjustments are used to correct some systematic model biases, ENSO behaviour in the modelled future climate features distinct irregular and periodic (biennial) regimes. Comparison with the observed record yields some consistency with ENSO modes primarily based on air-sea interaction and those dependent on basinwide ocean wave dynamics. Simple theory is also used to draw analogies between the regimes and irregular (stochastically forced) and self-excited oscillations respectively. Periodic behaviour is also found in the Asian-Australian monsoon system, part of an overall biennial tendency of the model under these conditions related to strong monsoon forcing and increased coupling between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) thus serves as a useful descriptor for the coupled monsoon-ENSO system in this case. The presence of obvious regime changes in the monsoon-ENSO system on interdecadal timescales, when using flux adjustments, suggests there may be greater uncertainty in projections of future climate, although further modelling studies are required to confirm the realism and cause of such changes

Sensitivity of middle Miocene climate and regional monsoon to palaeo-altimetry

It is well-known that plate motions and the elevation of mountains belts have played a major role in palaeoclimate evolution. The present day monsoon in southeast Asia and northern Australia is associated with the Tibetan plateau. We investigate how the Miocene Climate Optimum (MCO) developed in response to altimetry changes in Eurasia and South America impacting changes in regional monsoon, wind stress and precipitation. We carried out a number of numerical experiments with alternative paleo-altimetries, using an updated NCAR coupled climate model, CCSM3, and CAM3.1 and CLM3 with slab ocean and ice models, validated with proxies. Our model results explore the sensitivities of regional climate change to plate motions and rising mountain belts as well as sea-level change. Especially, the model simulations ground-truth the monsoon evolution in the southeast Asia, northern Australia and South America

Modelling monsoons: understanding and predicting current and future behaviour

The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal time scales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Niño—Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Absent aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting current and future behaviour of monsoons

Climate-Vegetation-Feedbacks as a Mechanism for Accelerated Climate Change: The onset of the African Humid Period

Paleo-environmental records and models indicate that the African Humid Period (AHPabruptly ended about 5000-4000 years before present (BP). Some proxies indicate alsan abrupt onset of the AHP between 14,000 and 11,000 BP. How important are local orbitaforcing, ice-sheet forcing, greenhouse gas forcing, and the reorganization of the AtlantiMeridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) for changes in the African Monsoon/vegetatiosystem? Here we use transient simulations with climate-vegetation models of differencomplexity to identify the factors that control the onset of the African Monsoon/VegetationWe test the following hypothesis:(1) There is no indication for insolation-thresholds for the onset/break of the AHP.(2) Forcing from CO2/ice-sheets significantly controls the climate of North Africa.(3) CO2 fertilization contributes to the vegetation changes over North Africa.(4) A shutdown of the AMOC is as important as orbital insolation for the African Monsoon

Indian monsoon variability on millennial-orbital timescales

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) monsoon is critical to billions of people living in the region. Yet, significant debates remain on primary ISM drivers on millennial-orbital timescales. Here, we use speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) data from Bittoo cave, Northern India to reconstruct ISM variability over the past 280,000 years. We find strong coherence between North Indian and Chinese speleothem δ18O records from the East Asian monsoon domain, suggesting that both Asian monsoon subsystems exhibit a coupled response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) without significant temporal lags, supporting the view that the tropical-subtropical monsoon variability is driven directly by precession-induced changes in NHSI. Comparisons of the North Indian record with both Antarctic ice core and sea-surface temperature records from the southern Indian Ocean over the last glacial period do not suggest a dominant role of Southern Hemisphere climate processes in regulating the ISM variability on millennial-orbital timescales

Late Holocene forcing of the Asian winter and summer monsoon as evidenced by proxy records from the northern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Little is known about decadal- to centennial-scale climate variability and its associated forcing mechanisms on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. A decadal-resolution record of total organic carbon (TOC) and grainsize retrieved from a composite piston core from Kusai Lake, NW China, provides solid evidence for decadal- to centennial-scale Asian monsoon variability for the Northern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during the last 3770 yr. Intensified winter and summer monsoons are well correlated with respective reductions and increases in solar irradiance. A number of intensified Asian winter monsoon phases are potentially correlated with North Atlantic climatic variations including Bond events 0 to 2 and more recent subtle climate changes from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age. Our findings indicate that Asian monsoon changes during the late Holocene are forced by changes in both solar output and oceanic-atmospheric circulation patterns. Our results demonstrate that these forcing mechanisms operate not only in low latitudes but also in mid-latitude regions (the Northern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau)

The role of the basic state in the ENSO-monsoon relationship and implications for predictability

The impact of systematic model errors on a coupled simulation of the Asian Summer monsoon and its interannual variability is studied. Although the mean monsoon climate is reasonably well captured, systematic errors in the equatorial Pacific mean that the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection is rather poorly represented in the GCM. A system of ocean-surface heat flux adjustments is implemented in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans in order to reduce the systematic biases. In this version of the GCM, the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection is better simulated, particularly the lag-lead relationships in which weak monsoons precede the peak of El Nino. In part this is related to changes in the characteristics of El Nino, which has a more realistic evolution in its developing phase. A stronger ENSO amplitude in the new model version also feeds back to further strengthen the teleconnection. These results have important implications for the use of coupled models for seasonal prediction of systems such as the monsoon, and suggest that some form of flux correction may have significant benefits where model systematic error compromises important teleconnections and modes of interannual variability

Wind environment evaluation in neighborhood residential areas in Malaysia:a case study of Johor Bahru metropolitan city

This paper discusses planning guidelines at the neighborhood residential areas in consideration of wind flow in Malaysia. It aims to reduce the energy consumption particularly from the usage of home air conditioners. Natural wind flow is one of the most effective methods to help achieve the energy saving objectives in large cities especially under the tropical climate like Malaysia. This paper presents the results of several wind tunnel tests on selected neighborhood residential areas in the Johor Bahru Metropolitan City. Moreover, the wind environment evaluation of the selected case study areas under the climate conditions of the city was carried out. The results of the evaluation shows that the mean wind velocities at 1.5m height of some of the Malaysian terraced houses cases were in the comfort zone particularly during the northeast monsoon period. Nevertheless, both in the southwest monsoon period and the inter monsoon period, although the mean values of wind velocity ratio of the Malaysian terrace houses had been slightly higher than the trend line of the Japanese apartment houses, the mean wind velocities in all the cases in the Johor Bahru City and Japan did not reach the required comfort zones